Developing a Strategy for Building Your Team Based on Scoring Categories

How do you win at Monopoly? Buy railroads? Acquire a group of properties of the same color and start building houses? The reality is, there is no one strategy that guarantees victory. That's what makes Monopoly so much fun.

The same holds true for fantasy baseball. You can assemble a team any way you want. Build a dominating starting pitching staff (the Carla Baughman-King model), focus on offense (Michelle Perry, Jenni Kirk), or shut down opponents with a strong bullpen (Leigh-Ann Wendling). The key is to have a plan and continue to execute that plan during the draft and throughout the season. There is more than one way to win a pennant.

Several factors will dictate your strategy, including:

• The league scoring system. In the SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League, your team's success is measured in 12 statistical categories. Offensively you need Home Runs, Runs Scored, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, On Base Percentage and Strikeouts (the fewer strikeouts the better). Your pitching staff is measured by Quality Starts, Saves, Holds, WHIP (Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitched), Earned Runs Allowed, and Strikeouts (the more the better).
• Injuries. You can't control which players on your team remain healthy during the season but you do control how injured players are replaced. You have three spots available for Disabled List players. If a player is hurt and placed on the Disabled List by his MLB team, you can place him on your DL. Good fantasy baseball team owners are adept at managing their rosters.
• Scout Your Opponent. Every Sunday before you submit your starting roster for the week look at the team you are about to play. Where is it strong? Where is it weak? Can you shift somebody from your bench to the starting lineup to create a statistical mismatch in any category? It takes five minutes to look at your opponent's statistics but that small investment can be the difference in winning a category or two.

Because we're getting close to the Feb. 16 Keeper Draft and beginning the process of building our teams, I want to focus this post on our scoring system and the relationship it has to your roster. Each of the 12 statistical categories will favor certain types of players. Understanding those relationships can help you develop the strategy for developing your roster.

OFFENSIVE STATISTICS

Miguel Cabrera hits homers

Home Runs - Your 11 offensive players need to combine to hit approximately 140 home runs over the course of a 23-week season if you hope to be competitive in this category. Your team will need about six home runs a week and each player will need to average about 13 home runs for the year. Only 17 catchers hit more than 12 home runs last year and just eight shortstops hit that mark. Third base, traditionally a position for power, saw just 13 players top 12 homers. In this post-steroid era, a player that can hit 25+ home runs has tremendous value, no matter what position he plays. He's even more valuable if he's a middle infielder or a catcher.

Runs Batted In - You'll need approximately 580 runs batted in over the course of a 23-week season to be competitive in this category. You'll want to target players that can drive in about 60 runs. Again, that's not easy for middle infielders. Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter and Elvis Andrus hovered around that mark last year and they are established stars. Your corner infielders and outfielders need to carry your team when it comes to RBIs. Look at the projected starting lineups for each team and target players batting third though sixth.

Curtis Granderson scores

Runs Scored - Competitive teams in our league score about 26 runs per week, or 600 over a 23-week schedule. Three of the top four run producers in 2011 were outfielders but middle infielders can also be run scorers. Target players that are batting high in the batting order. It's difficult to find run scoring third basemen and catchers.

On Base Percentage - Your team will need to reach base at a .345 clip to be competitive. I only look at players that are expected to get at least 350 at bats, otherwise they're not helping me in the other scoring categories (fewer at bats for catchers). Again, this statistic favors corner infielders (first/third basemen) and outfielders. Very few middle infielders can reach base this often and, when they do, they become very valuable.

Stolen Bases - This is where speedy outfielders and middle infielders shine. If your team can average just four stolen bases a week, you'll be competitive. One player can literally carry a team. Only 20 MLB players had 30 or more stolen bases last year. Just two corner infielders had more than 15 stolen bases. 

Reynolds K's again

Strikeouts - Don't ignore this category. It's used to bring offensive players into balance. Of the 10 batters who struck out the most in 2011, eight had 20+ home runs. Home run hitters are valuable but that value is reduced if they strike out a third of their at-bats. Here's how you use the stat during the draft. Let's say you need a player that can hit 30 home runs. Your choices are David Ortiz or Josh Willingham. They both had 29 home runs, while Willingham had 98 RBI and Ortiz 96. But, Ortiz struck out just 83 times while Willingham whiffed 150 times. These players look completely different when adding the strikeout filter to bring them into focus. To be competitive, you want fewer than 750 strikeouts on the season, or about 32 per week. Ideally, your middle infielders will have 80 or fewer strikeouts to balance your corner infielders and outfielders.

PITCHING STATISTICS

Jered Weaver 

Quality Start - A Quality Start requires a starting pitcher to pitch a minimum of six innings without giving up more than three runs. You'll need about 110 quality starts during the season to be competitive in the category. You can start between five and eight starting pitchers a week. It's one of the strategic decisions you make as a manager. While five of your pitchers must be starting pitchers, you have the option to start up to three starting pitchers in the P roster slot. There were 39 starting pitchers in 2011 that earned at least 20 quality starts. Don't draft on quality start alone. Pair it with strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP to get the whole picture.

Earned Run Average - Middle relievers can dominate both ERA and WHIP because they often pitch to a few batters in advantageous situations. You'll need to make a strategic decision - do you reduce your ERA and WHIP by using middle relievers in your three P positions or do you go with starters or a combination? This is where a quick peek at your opponent's roster can help you immensely. If your opponent places starting pitchers in the P slot, you can use middle relievers and hope to corner the Holds, ERA, and WHIP categories. You'll want to target a staff ERA of about 3.60 or less.

WHIP - Relief pitchers - both middle relievers and closers - will lower your WHIP. You'll need a staff WHIP of about 1.26 or less to win this category on a weekly basis. The more relief pitchers you start, the lower your WHIP should be (unless you have one of those unfortunate disaster outings from a relief pitcher). Of course,  you'll be giving up Quality Starts and Strikeouts.

Jonny Venters is a great middle reliever

Holds - Your middle relievers will need at least 60 holds over the course of the season to be competitive. You can often win the category by earning three holds in a week. If you have solid starting pitching, you can probably get away with starting two middle relievers - maybe one - to get the weekly holds you need. The top 17 middle relievers had 23 or more holds, approximately one per week.

Saves - While middle relievers help you WHIP, ERA and holds, only closers can earn you saves. Like holds, you'll need about three saves per week to compete for the category win against your opponent (or about 60 saves for the year). That will likely take two closers. You have three RP slots - either middle relievers or closers can start in these slots - and, of course, you have the three P slots. Managing your bullpen is essential to your team's success.

Justin Verlander adds strikeouts

Strikeouts - Because starting pitchers face so many more batters than relievers, they have an advantage in this category. You'll need about 1,200 strikeouts over 23 weeks to compete, or about 50 per week. You need at least one starter capable of 200 strikeouts. The top relievers will have half that amount but you are more likely to get about 70 strikeouts over the course of the year from your relievers. An important point - if you add a starting pitcher to your lineup you will gain strikeouts but at what cost to your WHIP & ERA? That's why they pay you the big bucks to make decisions.

Based on the statistical categories used in the SFRRC Fantasy League, it's clear there are a number of different strategies you can use to win a pennant. The key is to analyze your roster, develop a plan, and stick to it during the course of the season.