Thursday, February 9, 2012

Drafting Shortstops - Look for Steals, Runs

There are probably three shortstops starting on major league clubs this year capable of hitting 20 or more home runs and driving in 80+ runs. You won't find power at this position but you will find speed. That translates into stolen bases and runs scored, two categories you need to focus on when drafting your shortstop.

Shortstop is essentially a defensive position. Because of that, most shortstops aren't offensive threats and have limited value in fantasy baseball. I believe there are three shortstops in the league worth keeping - Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. All three represent a risk because of their injury histories and, in Hanley's case, a bad attitude that impacts his on-field performance. Their ability to steal bases, score runs and even provide some power make them worth the investment of at least a fifth-round pick in our league. Tulowitzki is an unusual shortstop, a player capable of 30+ homers, 100+ runs, and 100+ RBI. His statistical profile resembles a first baseman but with a lower strikeout rate and more steals. Reyes is your classic shortstop, 35+ stolen bases, 100+ runs and enough pop in his bat to give you 10+ home runs. He rarely strikes out. Ramirez has the best combination of power and speed at the position but that attitude thing...

The second tier illustrates how quickly the power numbers decrease at this position. Asdrubal Cabrera is probably the best bet to hit 20+ homers and steal 20+ bases. Jimmy Rollins will steal more bases than Cabrera and could hit 20+ home runs with half the strikeout rate, but, Rollins is getting older and has had injury problems. Of the pure base stealers, Elvis Andrus provides the most value because he will drive in some runs. Dee Gordon and Emilio Bonifacio steal bases and score runs but do little else. Ideally, they would be used as utility or bench players for match-up purposes, but, with the lack of depth at shortstop, they will be in someone's starting lineup on opening day.

Eight of the 12 players on the final list will land on opening day rosters in the SFRRC Fantasy League. That should scare you. Of the players that can steal 20+ bases, Starlin Castro appears to have the most value in other statistical categories. Notice how his statistical profile is identical to that of Derek Jeter except Castro has more speed.

You can win with J.J. Hardy in your lineup. He was the starting shortstop for The Bulls in 2011 but Carolyn Greene surrounded him with talent. Notice how the home run numbers for the last shortstops listed appear larger than those listed earlier. Now, take a step back from the screen and compare them with first basemen, or outfielders, or even third basemen. Who would you rather have in your utility spot or on your bench? If you target runs and stolen bases at this position (yes, even Jeter has enough value in those areas to start for one of our teams this year) your team will be more competitive than if you end up with one of the average home run hitters at the bottom of this list.

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