Wednesday, February 8, 2012

First Base - Land of the Giants

In this post-steroid era, no position in baseball has more power hitters than first base. There are 15 players with a legitimate shot at hitting 30 home runs for the season. If your team does not have one of those players after the March draft, you'll have a difficult time winning the home run and RBI categories on a week-to-week basis.

While first base is full of power hitters, I would only consider six to be legitimate keepers. Why? Because there is a second tier of hitters at this position that can provide home runs and RBI at a cheaper investment. Of course, those six keepers are some of the best players in baseball.

Miguel Cabrera is a legitimate MVP candidate. He will likely lead the league in RBI, and on-base percentage with fewer than 100 strikeouts. Albert Pujols won't reach base quite as often but he can steal 15 bases, which is very rare for a power hitter, and has an unbelievably low strikeout rate. Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and Joey Votto all have higher strikeout rates than Cabrera and Pujols but have similar power numbers.

Pairing one of the second-tier first basemen with a first base keeper can provide a team with enormous power potential. But it's a huge investment in power, which will come at the expense of speed and pitching.

Nikhil Dinesh has Fielder in the first tier and Paul Konerko in this second tier. Given the lack of overall talent on the Vicious Fishes, it could make sense for Nikhil to keep both. That's the potential for 60 home runs and 220 RBI from two players. Michael Morse and Eric Hosmer are young and should improve over the next few years. Their youth and the possibility of a high ceiling over the next few years makes them intriguing prospects as keepers. Lance Berkman, Kendrys Morales and Justin Morneau are a trio of veterans with injury history. The risk may be too high as keepers but if they stay healthy all three have All-Star potential.

 The third tier first basemen still provide power - home runs and RBI - but show some deficiencies in other statistical areas, specifically high strikeout rates, lower run production, or a low on-base percentage. Ryan Howard provides the most power but his strikeout rate is one of the highest in baseball. Ike Davis and Adam Lind are virtually identical players with one exception, Davis is young and has the potential for growth. Brandon Belt, Mark Trumbo, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddy Freeman and Lucas Duda are all young players with high ceilings but no consistent track record. They epitomize the high-risk, high-reward strategy. Gaby Sanchez is a steady performer who could benefit from a strong lineup in Miami in 2012.
By now, you should have your first base position filled. If you drafted first base late, you might need to pick one of these players to use in a utility slot. This brings us to another important draft strategy - use your utility positions wisely. Too often, owners simply place players in the utility role without much thought. Because a utility position can be filled by any position player (non pitcher) they have added strategic value. On Sunday night, before you set your roster, look at your opponent for the upcoming week. Are they weak in stolen bases, home runs, does their team strikeout a lot? It's possible to steal a category by placing a specialist in the utility spot. The players in this final tier are power specialists. They provide home runs and RBI. Carlos Lee, Juan Rivera and James Loney are the exception. They provide RBI potential with few strikeouts. If you have a corner infielder (first or third base) with a high strikeout rate, these three players can help balance the category.

All of the statistical projections used in this post were provided by CBS Sports. As with all player projections, they should be used as a guide to help you understand what type of player you are drafting.



No comments:

Post a Comment