Monday, June 11, 2012

Week 11 Preview - Division Leaders Find the Pack Barking at their Heels

We've nearly reached the halfway point of the regular season and some there are some juicy series on the docket for Week 11. The Slammers and Mirrors face each other in a contest between two division leaders who find the competition increasingly barking at their heels. The Bulls are trying to hold on to a tenuous lead in the North Division and pull out of a tailspin. After destroying High Cheese, Los Coche Bomba, the league's best team, sets its sights on Home Run 101, the league's worst team. This is going to be interesting.

It should be noted that BaseballMonster.com successfully predicted last week's upsets by Give it a Yankee and HUMA and that the computer correctly predicted the winner in five of the eight series. The final predictions for each series are a good indicator of how that series should finish, though the computer can't successfully predict hot players who single handedly turn the tide.

The week's only matchup between two division leaders will feature two hot closers, a pair of aces, an unknown third baseman making his mark and a veteran middle infielder getting his first shot at extended playing time. A-Rod's Mirrors have lost just once in the last month and that was a narrow one-point defeat to Los Coche Bomba, the best team in the league. They are coming off a dominating 6-3-3 victory over West Division rival Vicious Fishes and they own a 7-game lead over the Lower Haighters. Closer Craig Kimbrel has been dominating the last two weeks for the Mirrors, earning five saves without allowing a run over his last six innings. Stephen Strasburg has struck out 22 batters in his last 13 innings while recording two quality starts. The biggest surprise for the Mirrors has been third baseman Kyle Seager. The young utility player is batting .326 with three homers and 12 RBI in his last 11 games. The Slammers enter this series with an 8.5-game lead over the Machine in the East Division but they saw their four-week winning streak snapped by the Jersey Boys last week. Jed Lowrie has made the most of his consistent playing time for the Slammers, belting five home runs while reaching base at a .415 clip in his last 12 games. Zack Greinke will be counted on to match Strasburg's excellence on the mound. Greinke has fanned 19 batters over his last 13 innings while allowing just one run. The Slammers have never lost to the Mirrors and own a 15-8-1 record in their two meetings. The two teams tied 6-6 when they last met in Week 15 last year. Final Prediction: Scully's Slammers 8-4.

Two teams desperate to bounce back from surprising losses last week will be looking for their starting pitching to kick it in gear. The Cys are coming off a surprising 7-5 series loss to HUMA. That loss snapped a three-week winning streak. The Bulls were hammered 9-3 by North Division rival Give it a Yankee. It was the second consecutive loss for the team and they are 6-16 the last two weeks. A big reason for the skid is the team's lack of success on the mound. Jason Vargas and Chris Capuano have given up a combined 20 runs over their last five starts, only one of which was quality. They had been stalwarts for the Bulls as the team built a large lead in the North Division. That lead is now down to a paltry four games. The Cys, a team built around its starting pitching, has had little contribution on the mound over the past two weeks. Brad Lincoln, Edinson Volquez, and Yu Darvish have just two quality starts in their last seven appearances. They've given up 21 earned runs over their last 28.1 innings pitched. These teams have faced each other three times with the Cys winning twice, including a 7-4-1 victory in Week 15 last year. Final Prediction: The Cys 9-3.

Two teams headed in opposite directions meet, both desperate to gain ground in their respective pennant races. The Machine has lost three consecutive series and now trails the Slammers by 8.5-games in the East Division. They are just a .5-game ahead of Twinkle Toes after falling 7-4-1 to the Toes last week. Meanwhile, Give it a Yankee is rolling. They thrashed the Bulls 9-3 last week and haven't lost a series in four weeks. They trail the Bulls by just 4-games in the North Division. This week, they'll gamble and plug the erratic Francisco Liriano into the starting rotation. Liriano has been brilliant in his last three appearances, striking out 23 over 17.2 innings while earning two quality starts. The Machine needs a trio of veteran pitchers to step up. Gavin Floyd, Daniel Hudson, and Ricky Nolasco have combined for just two quality starts in their last six appearances. They've allowed 24 runs during those starts. Give it a Yankee has won two of the three meetings with the Machine but was blasted 10-2 in their last meeting in Week 11 last year. Final Prediction: Give it a Yankee 6-6.

It's a rematch of the 2010 SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League championship and both teams are playing well. Twinkle Toes has a two-week winning streak and hasn't lost in three weeks. They are coming off an impressive 7-4-1 victory over the Machine and are now just 9-games behind East Division leader Scully's Slammers. The Lower Haighters have won four straight series including a dominating 9-3 victory over the Marin Menehunes last week. They are now second in the West Division, 7-games behind A-Rod's Mirrors. Outfielder Alejandro de Aza and a trio of veteran pitchers have sparked the Toes. De Aza has five stolen bases in his last 11 games while Ian Kennedy, Ryan Vogelsong, and Ubaldo Jimenez are a perfect 7-for-7 in quality starts the last two weeks. They've given up just seven runs over their last 49 innings. The Lower Haighters are reverting to an old formula for success - mashing on offense and a rock-solid bullpen. Ernesto Frieri and Sean Burnett have combined for five holds and two saves while giving up just two runs over the last two weeks. Veterans Carlos Quentin and Albert Pujols have combined for seven home runs and 20 RBI as the offense has taken off for the Haighters. These teams have met three times, with the Lower Haighters winning both of the regular season meetings while the Toes won the championship series. They last met in Week 2 last year when the Lower Haighters prevailed 8-4. Final Prediction: Lower Haighters 8-4.

High Cheese dodged a bullet last week, scoring one point in a 9-1-2 loss to Los Coche Bomba. As late as Sunday, it looked like High Cheese could become the first team in league history to fail to win at least one category in a series. Starting pitching bailed the team out, winning quality starts. High Cheese has now lost four of its past five series, has fallen to the 10th in the overall standings, and is a whopping 18-games behind South Division leader Bomba. They'll face a Menehunes team with its own struggles. They've lost three straight series including a 9-3 pasting by the Lower Haighters last week. They've fallen to 13th in the overall standings and are 11.5-games back in the West Division pennant race. History does not look kindly on the Menehunes' chances of turning it around this week, as the team has lost three of its four meetings with High Cheese, including an 8-3-1 drubbing in Week 20 last year. The Menehunes will have a difficult time matching the power generated by Mark Trumbo and Paul Goldschmidt. The two young sluggers have combined for 12 home runs the last two weeks for High Cheese. The Menehunes will hope their penchant for resurrecting veteran players will work with starting pitcher Clay Buchholz. He has two quality starts and has given up just two runs over his last 17 innings, prompting the Menehunes to add the erratic veteran to an unstable starting staff prone to domination or damnation. Final Prediction: Marin Menehunes 6-6.

Two teams that have resurrected their seasons over the last couple of weeks meet with an eye toward climbing back into the playoff chase. The Jersey Boys have a 17-6 record in their last two series and are coming off a surprising 6-5-1 victory over East Division leader Scully's Slammers. They have moved to 12th in the overall standings and are now just 13.5-games behind the Slammers. Bacon has won three of its past four series including a workman-like 7-4 victory over Home Run 101 last week. They are 11th in the overall standings and just 9.5-games behind the Bulls in the North Division. These teams have met twice, fighting to a draw in their first meeting while the Jersey Boys won their last meeting, 7-4-1, in Week 7 last year. Bacon's recent success is directly related to the play of dynamic outfielder Mike Trout. In his last 12 games, Trout has scored 15 runs, stolen five bases, and hit a home run. The Jersey Boys aren't built around young, dynamic players. They are a veteran-laden team and Alfonso Soriano's bat is carrying them. He has seven home runs and 16 RBI in his last 13 games. Final Prediction: Jersey Boys 8-4.

Uh, oh. After humiliating High Cheese 9-1-2 last week Los Coche Bomba sets its sights on the league's last place team, Home Run 101. Bomba has won two of the three meetings and owns a 21-15-0 record against them. But don't expect Home Run 101 to lay down without a fight. They beat Bomba 7-5 in Week 11 last year. Still, Home Run 101 enters this series on a four-week losing streak while Bomba has won four of five, its only loss to the second-place Slammers. If Home Run 101 wants to compete this week, it needs Luke Scott, John Baker, Alcides Escobar, and Alexi Casilla to step up. They have combined for just 17 hits over the past two weeks. Outfielder Lucas Duda has carried the team, mashing five home runs in his last 45 at bats. Bomba is firing on all cylinders. On the mound, Matt Garza and Matt Harrison are a perfect 5-for-5 in quality starts the last two weeks, allowing just nine runs in 35.2 innings. Miguel Cabrera and Michael Bourn are providing both power and speed at the plate. Cabrera has four homers and 11 RBI in his last 13 games while Bourn has two home runs, two stolen bases, and 10 runs scored in his last 11 games. Final Prediction: Los Coche Bomba 6-6.

HUMA broke a three-week losing skid last week with an upset victory over the Cys, 7-5. The Fishes haven't won a series in six weeks and have fallen to 14th in the overall standings. The teams have split their previous two meetings with HUMA winning 8-2-2 in last year's Week 2 matchup. Over the last two weeks, Scott Diamond has emerged as a gem of a pitcher for HUMA. He's allowed just three earned runs over 19.1 innings while going 3-for-3 in quality start attempts. At the plate, Joey Votto and Jose Altuve are carrying the team. In his last 12 games, Votto has a .520 OBP, two home runs, nine RBI, and 10 runs scored. Altuve is batting .383 and has scored 12 runs in his last 13 games. The Fishes have the best player in the league over the last two weeks, starting pitcher Chris Sale. He's a perfect 3-for-3 in quality start attempts, allowing just three runs over 24.1 innings while striking out 30 batters. Prince Fielder is starting to break out of his woes for the Fishes, hitting three homers and driving in 12 runs over his past 13 games while posting a robust .411 OBP. Final Prediction: HUMA 7-5.

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