Early reports from Spring Training

This is the time of the year when every aging veteran reports to camp in the best shape of his life, every rookie hitter is hitting home runs in batting practice and every pitcher returning from elbow or shoulder surgery is throwing strikes. It's a great time, because baseball is back, but you need your B.S. detector when wading through the various player reports from Florida to Arizona. Still, there is valuable information flowing from training camps as you begin to think about building your 2012 fantasy league baseball roster. Here is some of the top news after the first week of camp:

• Cleveland's All-Star closer Chris Perez has the dreaded "strained oblique" and is going to miss 4 to 6 weeks of training camp. This is extremely important because good closers are hard to find and it sends ripple effects through the Cleveland bullpen. Set-up man Vinnie Pestano, a great candidate for holds, could move into the closer role if Perez isn't ready for Opening Day.
• The Houston Astros are going to transition starting pitcher Brett Myers into the team's closer which will impact the bullpen and provide fantasy owners with some strategic options. Myers is currently eligible as a starting pitcher which gives owners the option of playing a reliever in the starting pitcher roster spot, presumably helping with saves, ERA, and WHIP. After Myers has appeared in five games as a reliever, he'll be eligible as both a SP and RP. Myers last closed in 2007 with the Phillies and has been a starter in all but one of his 10 years in the majors so he should be considered a risky bullpen draft choice.
• Not one, but two Sizemores are already injured. Scott Sizemore, Oakland's starting third baseman, is lost for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. Grady Sizemore, the oft-injured outfielder for Cleveland, has a lower back strain. Fantasy league owners long ago quit waiting for Grady Sizemore to deliver. Scott Sizemore is a marginal third base talent who could be replaced by backup catcher Josh Donaldson.
• Johan Santana, one of the top left-handed starting pitchers in the game three years ago, tossed a 72-pitch bullpen and finally looks healthy. He had surgery for a torn anterior capsule in his throwing shoulder in September, 2010 and didn't pitch at all last year. The Mets sound like Santana could be their opening day starter. Keep an eye on him during spring training. If he's healthy he's a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.
• Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish threw his first bullpen for the Texas Rangers and, according to Texas Manager Ron Washington, had 60 pitches that cut, trailed, rose, sunk and did a loop-d-loop. Interesting that Washington did not match Darvish against any of the Rangers' great hitters, but instead threw him against minor league hitters. He let Neftali Feliz, who is making the transition from closer to starter, throw against the Major League hitters. Darvish should remain on your draft day radar and could be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but there is a long list of Japanese pitchers who have flamed out in the majors.
• It looks like Bailey Penzotti's gamble on starting pitcher Josh Johnson might pay off. Bailey made Johnson a keeper, despite his shoulder injury that cost him most of last season. Johnson has thrown a pain-free bullpen session and is on target to start a spring training game next week. 
• Closer Brian Wilson, another Bailey gamble, has declared himself fit for 2012. Wilson was injured much of last year but pitched threw pain to earn 36 saves. He has also thrown several pain-free bullpen sessions.
• Starting pitcher Tommy Hanson suffered a concussion in a car accident on his way to spring training and is dealing with the after effects. Hanson was the final player kept by new owner Nikhil Dinesh and will be counted on to lead the Vicious Fishes.
• First baseman Ryan Howard appears to be ahead of schedule in his quest to return from a torn Achilles' tendon. The Phillies are saying he could be ready to return to the lineup by May 1. Howard is one of the most prolific home run hitters in the league when healthy.
• Outfielder Carl Crawford is targeting Opening Day for his return from a wrist injury. Crawford struggled last year, his first in Boston, but is a potential 15+ home run, 20+ stolen base player.

The calm before the storm: Preparing for your fantasy baseball draft

We are now just three weeks away from the SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League March draft. It's the game within the game and the most important thing you'll do to build your 2012 fantasy team. Are you ready? What should you be doing to prepare?

At this point, you should take five minutes to look at your current roster and determine which positions you need to fill in March. Are you going to focus on pitching, hitting or do you want to try to build a balanced team? Remember, to be competitive in the 12 statistical categories used in our league, the players on your team need to combine to hit these marks (divide these totals by 23 to figure out what you'll need on a weekly basis):

Hitting Statistics

• 580+ RBI
• 600+ Runs Scored
• 140+ Home Runs
• .345 On Base Percentage
• 90+ Stolen Bases
• 750 (or fewer) Strikeouts

Pitching Statistics

•  110 Quality Starts
• 3.60 (or less) ERA
• 1.26 (or less) WHIP
• 60+ Holds
• 60+ Saves
• 1,200+ Strikeouts

Luckily, there are plenty of experts available to help you predict which players will put up the best statistical numbers in 2012. People write their doctoral thesis on statistical projections for baseball players. The folks at FantasyRundown.com have a web page with links to all of this year's projections. Don't drown swimming through the numbers but I encourage you to paddle around a little.

Because this is a beginner's league, I'll make it easy for you in another 7 to 10 days when I begin ranking players available in our draft by position, complete with statistical projections tailored to our league. They'll be posted on this blog. In my opinion, it's a little early to begin projecting statistics for the upcoming season when the first spring training game hasn't been played.

If you want to get a jump on the competition, look through this blog's archive and you'll find the CBS Sports statistical projections for players at each position. Remember, some of these players have already been drafted and won't be available on March 19.

Take 15 minutes and write down the names of some of the players you would like to draft early. Then keep an eye on them during spring training. MLB.com does a great job of providing daily player updates. Also, MLBDepthCharts.com is updated daily and it shows you which players are expected to start for each team. You want to draft starters because they'll have more opportunities to accumulate stats.

Remember, this is the calm before the storm.

2012 Schedule Features an Additional Rivalry Week

The SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League Office has announced the 2012 season schedule which includes an additional Rivalry Week game featuring head-to-head match-ups with the two best teams in each division.

In 2011, the league schedule had each team facing its division rival three times over the course of the season. To facilitate a 23-week schedule, each team then faced two non-division foes twice, and every other team once.

This year, the league has added a fourth division series featuring the best two teams in each division and eliminating one of the non-division series.

"The focus of the 2012 schedule is building rivalries through division play," said E. Seymour Waggner, head of scheduling for the league. "The goal is to make the division pennant races closer."

Division rivals will face each other in the first week of the season, which runs from March 28 through April 8. The last four weeks of the season will also feature head-to-head match-ups with division rivals.

Other 2012 schedule highlights include:

• A Week 2 match-up of the two best teams in league history, the Lower Haighters vs. Los Coche Bomba.
• A Week 5 series between High Cheese and Team HUMA, two teams that went to the wire for the South Division title in 2011.
• A Week 10 series between Twinkle Toes and The Machine, the two teams to win East Division championships over the past two years.

The full 2012 schedule is available on the league home page.

League Set to Release 2012 Schedule

There is news both on and off the field in the SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League as pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training and the league office has announced that the 2012 schedule will be unveiled later this week.

According to sources, the 2012 schedule format will remain the same as last year, with each team facing division rivals in a weekly series three times during the season. Each team will also play two teams from outside their division twice, and every other team once to make up the 23-week schedule.

In 2011, the league scheduled one additional series between teams in the same division to help build on natural rivalries. Those series were quickly embraced by fans, who purchased tickets at a record pace. In addition, the league moved three of the "Rivalry Week" series to the last three weeks of the season to heighten the drama of the pennant races. It worked, as playoff spots and division champions were decided on the final day of the regular season, lifting television ratings to an all-time high.

"After last year's success, there's no way the league will either reduce the number of division rivalry series or move them off those final three weeks," said a source familiar with the negotiations on the 2012 schedule.

The source also indicated that the league's two biggest teams, the Lower Haighters and Los Coche Bomba, will face each other twice, once early in the season and once late. The Haighters hold a 3-1 advantage over the Bomba in head-to-head play but Bomba owner Jenni Kirk said her team welcomes the challenge on the big stage. "We don't shy away from the bright lights," Kirk said. "These should be nationally televised series. That's what the fans want."

When reached at spring training, Haighters shortstop Jose Reyes made it clear he was looking forward to the matchup with Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and the Bomba. "This is why I cut my hair," he said. "I need to look good for these big television games."

In other news around the league...Season ticket sales for the Menehunes have reached a fevered pitch. The new stadium in Marin is the talk of the league and Menehune fans are coming out of the trees, bushes, and from under rocks to buy tickets...Lower Haighters outfielder Ryan Braun will not serve a 50-game suspension for using performance enhancing drugs after a three-member panel ruled 2-1 for Braun. Two of the three panel members will remain on the Lower Haighters' payroll...Starting pitcher Josh Johnson threw a pain-free bullpen session, big news for Bailey Penzotti and Home Run 101...Buster Posey continues his comeback following last year's broken ankle. Sunni York remains optimistic that Posey will be a presence in the middle of her lineup.

Why Should I Play Fantasy Baseball?

This is a great time to blog about fantasy baseball. Spring Training is starting and there is a renewed interest in baseball. Fantasy leagues are forming and new people are being introduced to both the game of baseball and fantasy league baseball.

I've been playing fantasy baseball since the mid-1980s, when I picked up my first copy of the original Rotisserie League Baseball book. Why? I love baseball and the game of fantasy baseball helps me enjoy it even more. But even if you aren't a diehard baseball fan and this is your first exposure to the game of fantasy baseball, there's no reason you can't enjoy the game as much as a 20-year fantasy veteran.

Here are some of the questions I'm often asked by people new to fantasy baseball at this time of the year.

I don't know a lot about baseball, can I still enjoy the game of fantasy baseball?  Absolutely. Playing in a fantasy league is one of the best ways to familiarize yourself with the players. In some cases, it's better to play fantasy baseball if you don't have a favorite team. But then...

I am a diehard (fill in your favorite team) fan. Is it possible to enjoy the game when I'm so focused on one team? I tell fantasy league baseball players who follow one team to go all in. Plan to draft your favorite players from your favorite team. Yes, you'll overpay for them. No, it's not the smartest strategy if you are trying to win your league. But, if you want to enjoy fantasy baseball, there's no better way than to draft your favorites from your favorite team. My friend, Sunni York, is a big-time Giants fan. In 2010, she played in her first fantasy baseball league and drafted a large number of Giants. As the Giants marched their way to their first championship since moving to San Francisco, Sunni's fantasy team won the championship. I've never seen anyone happier to be playing fantasy baseball. Of course, when her catcher, Buster Posey, was injured in 2011, I've never seen anybody lower. Her enjoyment of the baseball season is tied to the fortunes of the Giants so it's only fitting that her fantasy league hopes hinge on Giants players.

I'm a casual baseball fan and some friends have asked me to join their fantasy league but I don't have much time. Should I play? That depends on the league. The rules your fantasy league uses dictates how much time is required to play. For beginning players, I recommend playing in leagues that restrict lineup changes to once per week and limits the number of player transactions each team can make per week. This will reduce the time commitment necessary to play the game. Leagues that allow daily lineup changes require an enormous time commitment. I also recommend playing in a head-to-head league, rather than a traditional rotisserie league. Having a weekly opponent heightens the excitement for a beginning player.

I like the idea of playing in a fantasy league but drafting players is overwhelming. How can I make it easier? Have a plan. If you enter the draft without a plan, it will overwhelm you. I realize there are a million different plans on the Internet but reading those can be just as overwhelming. The draft is important but it should also be fun. Get together with other owners, have a glass of wine or a few beers, and talk about the players and where you think they should be drafted. Put together a list of players at each position. If you're playing in a Yahoo, CBS, or ESPN league and your draft is computerized, let the computer pick for you, especially late in the draft, when you have no clue who to pick.

I like the idea of playing in a fantasy league and I follow baseball but I don't know all the players. Will I still have fun in a fantasy league? What's taken you so long! Yes, you'll love the game but, depending on the competitiveness of your league, you might have to take your lumps for a year or two. So what? Some of my favorite fantasy league teams have finished in the second half of the standings. As you learn the players, you'll get better.

Fantasy baseball is all about numbers and I'm really not a numbers gal. How can it be fun for me? Fantasy baseball is a soap opera that unfolds week by week. Each team in your league will have a storyline. That storyline will change with the fortunes of the players. Turn on ESPN Baseball Tonight, or the MLB Network and watch a half hour of highlights at night and you'll see the story unfold before your eyes. The numbers help create the storyline but, the reality is this - baseball has a soul and numbers can't measure a soul. As silly as it sounds, your fantasy baseball team will develop a soul during the season. If it was just a game of numbers it wouldn't attract 40 million people per year.

I'm playing in my first fantasy baseball league this year. Do you have any advice? Yes, but it won't help you win your league. First, play out the entire season, no matter how well your team does. Replace your injured players, bench ineffective players, interact with other team owners. Remember, other owners are counting on you to field a competitive team. Don't give up!

Second, understand the rules of your league. What are the scoring categories? How many players are on your roster? How often can you change the starting lineup? Spend the time before the season starts to understand the type of league you are playing in and you'll enjoy the game more.

Interact with other league owners. If you are playing in a Yahoo, ESPN, or CBS public league, post on the message board. Get to know the other owners. Make some trade proposals. It's fun to play with active owners. If you are playing in a league where you already know the other owners, the game is much more fun. Encourage owners in your league to get together to watch games or hold a happy hour. Fantasy baseball should be a fun, social activity, not an exercise of sitting alone on your computer watching the numbers your players post on a daily basis.

Two New Owners Add Intrigue in the West

The West Division featured haves and have-nots in 2011. The Lower Haighters made their second appearance in the league championship series - and this time they won - while A-Rod's Mirrors earned their second post-season berth. On the flipside, the Sasquatch Sluggers - now named the Marin Menehunes - and Vicious Fishes finished 13th and last in the league respectively, but will enter 2012 with new owners.


Power hitters such as Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols and Mike Stanton will continue making the West Division a sluggers paradise in 2012.

The Lower Haighters have been the most successful franchise in league history, appearing in the championship series in each of the first two seasons. They bring back three division All-Stars from 2011.

Outfielder Ryan Braun was the team's MVP last year and returns to the team this year despite the possibility of a 50-game suspension after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. He'll be joined by 2010 league MVP Albert Pujols and shortstop Jose Reyes.

In a somewhat surprising move, the Lower Haighters allowed All-Star set-up men David Robertson and Eric O'Flaherty to become free-agents and, instead, kept outfielder Mike Stanton. To be worth the investment made by the team in Stanton, the young outfielder must cut down on his strikeouts.

The final keeper for the Lower Haighters was starting pitcher Felix Hernandez. Hernandez struck out 222 batters and earned 22 quality starts in 2011.

The Mirrors focused on pitching when it came to protecting players for 2012. Pitchers Cole Hamels and Stephen Strasburg will anchor the starting staff while Craig Kimbrel will be the closer. Hamels ranked second on the team last year, striking out 194 batters and registering 24 quality starts. Strasburg was limited to 24 innings pitched as he came back from an elbow injury. He has the potential to be a 200+ strikeout pitcher. Kimbrel was the league's top closer in 2011 and ranked third in team MVP voting.

Offensively, the Mirrors bring back 2011 team MVP Dustin Pedroia, a division All-Star at second base. Pedroia had 21 home runs and 26 stolen bases and was the league's 15th-ranked player last year. Instead of keeping the team's namesake, third baseman Alex Rodridguez, they instead kept young catcher J.P. Arencibia.

The Mirrors are well positioned for the early rounds of the March draft. They could add another pitcher to bolster the strongest staff in the league or find a power bat.

New owner Elizabeth Gravely has given the team a new name and, hopefully, the attention it needs to make its first-ever playoff appearance. It became apparent the team was headed in a different direction when it did not keep 2011 team MVP David Ortiz.

Gravely focused on the middle infield during the keeper draft. Second baseman Ben Zobrist and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera finished 2011 ranked third and fourth on the team respectively. Zobrist had 20 home runs and 19 stolen bases while Cabrera had 25 home runs and 17 stolen bases. The Menehunes also kept second baseman Kelly Johnson, who had 21 home runs and 16 stolen bases. All three have a good combination of speed and power.

The final two players kept by the Menhunes were starting pitcher Tim Lincecum and first baseman Billy Butler. Lincecum, who had 220 strikeouts and ranked second on the team last year, now becomes the face of the franchise. Butler was second on the team with 94 RBI and third in on base percentage at .361.

New owner Nikhil Dinesh brings back three of the top five players from last year's team with good balance between pitching and hitting.

First baseman Prince Fielder was the team's MVP last year, leading the team with 38 homers and 120 RBI. Another first baseman, Paul Konerko, was also kept. Konerko was the second-ranked player on the team, hitting 31 home runs and driving in 105 runs. Konerko can play the utility position or be used as a trading chip.

The final offensive player kept by the Fishes was outfielder Nelson Cruz. He was limited to 124 games in 2011 because of injuries but still hit 29 home runs and drove in 87 RBI.

The Fishes bring back two solid starting pitchers in David Price and Tommy Hanson. Hanson's season was cut short by injury but he struck out 142 batters in 130 innings pitched. Price was the team's leading pitcher last year, striking out 218 and earning 21 quality starts.

Teams in the East Division Begin Building Their Rosters With Different Approaches

The four teams in the East Division began building their teams for 2012 in very different ways. Scully's Slammers have assembled a solid starting pitching staff by keeping three players capable of striking out 200 batters. The Jersey Boys kept two of the game's best closers. The defending division champions, the Machine, have home run power while Twinkle Toes is the most balanced team.

Because of the different approach each team took in keeping five players from last year's team, they all have different needs entering the March draft.

 Four of the five players kept by the Machine were division All-Stars in 2011. Third baseman Jose Bautista and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury provide a combination of power and speed. Both finished the 2011 season ranked in the top five overall among all players. Bautista hit 43 home runs last year while Ellsbury hit 32 while stealing 39 bases.

Instead of keeping All-Star pitchers Dan Haren and Tyler Clippard, the team loaded up on offense. Catcher Matt Wieters is just 25-years-old and is poised to be one of the game's best offensive catchers. Third baseman Chase Headley brings a high on base percentage and the potential to steal 15+ bases. The team's high investment in Headley makes it imperative that he deliver in 2012.

The Machine did protect one pitcher, starter Matt Cain. Cain had 26 quality starts and 179 strikeouts to earn division All-Star status in 2011.

The Jersey Boys have finished second in the division twice. They are hoping strong pitching can propel them to the top of the standings in 2012.

The team is the only one in the league to keep two closers. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon combined for 75 saves in 2011 and will give the Jersey Boys two of the top players at a position that can be difficult to fill.

The team also kept two starting pitchers, Justin Verlander and Michael Pineda. Verlander was the league MVP last year, striking out 250 batters and earning 28 quality starts. Pineda, obtained in a late-season trade last year, was the team's second best starter in 2011. Keeping Pineda meant valuable utility man Michael Young and outfielder Alex Gordon became free agents.

Outfielder Curtis Granderson was the only offensive player kept. He earned division All-Star status last year with 41 home runs and 26 stolen bases.

Twinkle Toes, the 2010 league champions, filled two difficult positions by keeping catcher Buster Posey and second baseman Ian Kinsler. Kinsler was the team's MVP in 2011, hitting 32 home runs and stealing 30 bases. Posey's season ended early with a season-ending injury but his return will provide power production that should help Twinkle Toes return to to the playoffs.

Third baseman Evan Longoria hit 31 home runs and drove in 99 runs in 2011. He could lead the team in both categories this year.

Starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner and set-up man Mike Adams were the team's final two keepers. Adams has been an All-Star relief pitcher the past two years, earning 32 holds in 2011. Keeping Bumgarner, who is only 22, meant the team had to release first baseman Lance Berkman and starting pitcher Ian Kennedy. Bumgarner is poised for a 200+ strikeout and 25+ quality start season and will be the team's ace for years to come.

The Slammers have finished last in the East Division the past two years but a plan for changing the team's losing ways is coming into focus and it revolves around pitching.

Four of the five players kept by the team were pitchers. James Shields, a 2011 division All-Star, will be the team's ace. He was the team MVP thanks to 25 quality starts and 225 strikeouts. Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke both had 200+ strikeouts in 2011 and give the team three starters who could be the ace of any team in the league. The back of the bullpen will be led by closer Heath Bell, who could see his save opportunities improve with his move to Miami.

The only offensive player kept by the Slammers was outfielder Matt Holliday, the team's leader in home runs in 2011. The team will have the second pick in the draft so a power hitter can be added to provide Holliday some much-needed assistance.

The South Division: Rebuilding Isn't Allowed, Only Reloading

In 2011, the South was the most competitive division in the SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League. That's not likely to change in 2012, which means rebuilding isn't an option. Teams must reload if they hope to win the pennant.

Ten of last year's 17 division All-Stars will return to their teams in 2012, including the entire infield, three of the game's top starting pitchers, and a closer. Here's a look at the players that will be counted on to lead their clubs in what could be the league's most competitive pennant race.

HUMA won the 2011 pennant by one game over High Cheese because of a prolific offense. That will not change in 2012.

Two corner infielders supply the power for HUMA. First baseman Joey Votto is the team's leader, smacking 29 home runs and driving in 103 runs in 2011. At 28, he's entering his prime and his numbers could improve. He finished last season as the 18th best player in the league. At third base, Adrian Beltre hit 32 home runs and drove in 105 RBI. Only Jose Bautista and Alex Gordon ranked higher at the position.

Josh Hamilton and Peter Bourjos will return in the outfield. Both represent some risk but have high upside. Hamilton had 25 home runs in 2011 but continues to battle substance abuse. If he stays on the field, he has MVP-type talent. Bourjos is just 24-years-old and will be counted on to give the team speed. He stole 22 bases last year and could reach 30 in a revamped Angels lineup.

Jon Lester struck out 182 batters in 2011, more than any other pitcher on the staff. The team allowed Doug Fister, an important member of the staff during last year's pennant race, to become a free agent.

After leading the division for most of 2011, High Cheese collapsed in the final two weeks of the regular season and lost the pennant race by one game to HUMA. High Cheese will depend on its pitching staff if it hopes to win a pennant this year.

The starting rotation will be led by Jered Weaver and Gio Gonzalez. Weaver was a South Division All-Star in 2011 and was the team's best player, posting 28 quality starts and striking out 198 batters. Gonzalez was selected over Jordan Zimmerman, who ranked higher in 2011, but Gonzalez struck out 197 batters, second only to Weaver.

The bullpen will be led by John Axford, a key free-agent acquisition last year. Axford finished the season as a division All-Star. He had 46 saves and was the team's third highest rated player.

Offensively, High Cheese kept shortstop Hanley Ramirez and outfielder Jay Bruce. Ramirez entered 2011 as one of baseball's best players but injuries and a bad attitude led to a disappointing campaign that saw him play in just 92 games. Bruce, 24, is a young slugger who should improve. He finished 2011 with 32 home runs.

The team will be without All-Star catcher Victor Martinez, who will miss the season due to injury, and they allowed base stealer Michael Bourn to become a free-agent.

Los Coche Bomba, the defending division champion, struggled in 2011 and was the final team to qualify for the playoffs on the last day of the season. The offense wasn't the problem. The pitching was. In 2012, the team will need to improve its pitching if it hopes to win a second division title.

Three infielders were kept to form the nucleus of the 2012 team. First baseman Miguel Cabrera was a South Division All-Star last year and the team's MVP. He belted 30 home runs and drove in 105 runs in 2011. Second baseman Robinson Cano was also a division All-Star and hit 28 home runs. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval was injured last year and played in just 117 games. If he stays healthy, and doesn't gain weight, he could hit 30 home runs.

Outfielder Andrew McCutchen was also a South Division All-Star, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 23 bases. The team allowed another All-Star outfielder, Shane Victorino, to become a free-agent. He should be drafted early in March.

Starting pitcher Brandon Beachy, a 25-year-old who struck out 169 in 2011, was the only pitcher kept and will be the foundation of the staff.

The Cys were denied their first playoff appearance when they were passed by Los Coche Bomba on the final day of the season last year. In 2012, the team brings back four of their five All-Stars but it's a first base prospect that will be counted on to deliver if the team is going to finally qualify for that long awaited first playoff berth.

The pitching staff will be led by All-Stars CC Sabathia and C.J. Wilson. Both had 200+ strikeouts and 20+ quality starts in 2011.

All-Star catcher Carlos Santana is just 25-years-old but he may be the top offensive catcher in the game. He hit 27 home runs in 2011, his first full season in the league. Shortstop Elvis Andrus stole 37 bases and scored 96 runs last year to earn division All-Star status.

The Cys gambled when they allowed first baseman and team MVP Mark Teixeira to become a free agent. He hit 39 home runs and drove in 111 runs in 2011 and will likely be one of the first players chosen in the March draft. In his place, the Cys kept young Brandon Belt, a 23-year-old top prospect, who finished last season as the league's 870th-ranked player. Belt is considered one of the game's top hitting prospects but he isn't guaranteed a starting spot with the Giants entering spring training. If Belt does earn a starting job, it will be a victory for the Cys before the season begins.

North Divison: Go Your Own Way

"Baseball games are like snowflakes and fingerprints, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella

Teams in the North Division are going in opposite directions entering the March 19 Player Draft. Each has a different set of strategic options after protecting varied positions. Here's a look at each team heading into spring training.

The Bulls won the division pennant in 2011 and finished third overall. They are the only team in the North that will enter the draft without an infielder.

The Bulls protected three outfielders - Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Hunter Pence. Gonzalez and Kemp earned North Division All-Star honors in 2011. They will give the team a significant advantage in stolen bases and runs scored. Pence is an all-around player that can be counted on to reach his statistical projections. Kemp entered last season with lots of question marks but finished as the second best player in the league. Gonzalez was ranked 30th overall despite playing just 127 games. Pence had 22 home runs and 98 RBI and finished 62nd overall.

Rather than protect relievers Brandon League and Neftali Feliz, the Bulls focused on starting pitching. They'll build the rotation around 2011 North Division All-Star Roy Halladay. With its final pick, the team surprised many by protecting Bud Norris, who finished last year with 15 quality starts, a 3.92 ERA, and 176 strikeouts. That leaves 2011 North Division All-Star Ricky Romero unprotected in the March Draft.

Analysis: The Bulls are well-rounded offensively and can focus on the best available player when it comes to drafting infielders. Another base stealer will make this team very difficult to beat in that category. Relief pitchers will be a high priority in March as the team has two starters capable of 180+ strikeouts and 20+ quality starts.

Bacon is built around power and poised to add more in the March draft. Second baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will likely lead all hitters at their position in both home runs and RBI. That's a significant amount of firepower. Tulowitzki was a North Division All-Star last year and ranked 25th overall.

First baseman Eric Hosmer is young and Bacon will expect him to improve on the 19 home runs and 78 RBI he posted last year. Hosmer was ranked 133rd overall and ninth on the team. Outfielder Justin Upton was a North Division All-Star last year and finished the season ranked 23rd overall.

Bacon brought back 2011 team MVP Cliff Lee to lead the pitching staff. Lee was ranked ninth overall and was a North Division All-Star.

Analysis: The middle infield will be a power source for Bacon so the team will need to find an outfielder with speed. A power-hitting outfielder could also close the gap with the Bulls. The pitching staff needs attention as division rivals Give it a Yankee and the Bulls have pieces to their starting staffs while Home Run 101 has bullpen depth.

Catcher Mike Napoli was a surprise keeper for Give it a Yankee in 2011 but that wasn't the case this year. Napoli showed he can be a premier home run hitter and the best in the league at his position. Napoli was an All-Star catcher last year and finished the season ranked as the 46th best player in the league.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez finished second to pitcher Clayton Kershaw in the team MVP standings and was a North Division All-Star in 2011. He'll supply home runs, runs and RBI. Second baseman Brandon Phillips was also a division All-Star and finished ranked 54th overall. He could supply 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

Kershaw and Josh Beckett will anchor the starting pitching staff in 2012. Both were division All-Stars last year. Kershaw was the team MVP and ranked sixth overall. He had 25 quality starts and 248 strikeouts. Beckett finished 2011 ranked 36th overall with 19 quality starts and 175 strikeouts.

Analysis: The team needs a base stealer and some bullpen arms but could elect to build on the strong starting staff and the powerful bats in the lineup. Strategically, the team is uniquely positioned to go in several directions and could be poised to return to the playoffs in 2012.

Home Run 101 jumped on the competition by keeping bullpen stalwarts Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo. Both suffered arm injuries in 2011 so they must be watched carefully in spring training. Romo was a a division All-Star last year and finished with 23 holds and a microscopic 0.71 WHIP. He ranked 76th overall. Wilson had 36 saves despite missing the last month of the season. Given the strategy to build the bullpen, it was a surprise the team didn't protect setup man Koji Uehara, a division All-Star in 2011 who ranked 70th overall.

The team took a chance on starting pitcher Josh Johnson, who suffered a season-ending shoulder season early in 2011. When healthy, Johnson is a staff ace, capable of 200+ strikeouts and 20+ quality starts.

Third baseman Aramis Ramirez and second baseman Howie Kendrick rounded out the keepers. Ramirez finished 2011 with 26 home runs, was the team MVP, and was a division All-Star. He ranked 51st overall. Kendrick can supply 15+ homers and 15+ stolen bases and could be a sleeper in a revamped Angels offense. The team reached for Kendrick, passing over outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and starting pitcher Josh Collmenter, so he'll need to supply offense.

Analysis: This team needs power. Period. It's been the story of the past two seasons. Picking third overall, they'll have a chance to add a power bat early. Adding another bullpen arm could keep the team ahead of division opponents. The key will be Johnson's health. If he starts on Opening Day, there will be optimism in the Home Run 101 camp.

Teams Look for Starting Pitching, Middle Infield Help at 2012 Keeper Draft

"Pitching is the art of instilling fear." - Sandy Koufax

Pitching and the middle infield were the focus of this year's keeper draft as SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League teams began the process of building rosters for the 2012 season.

Each team kept five of its 26 players from last year's team. More than half of this year's keepers - 42 of 80 - were also kept by teams in 2011.  This year, 33 pitchers were kept, including 25 starting pitchers, six closers and two setup men. That compares to 21 starters, four closers, and three setup men last year.

Yovani Gallardo

The desire to build strong starting pitching staffs crossed division boundaries, with each division taking six starters with the exception of the East Division, which took seven. Scully's Slammers protected James Shields, Yovanni Gallardo and Zach Greinke to complete three-fifths of the starting staff before spring training begins.

The big surprise was the run on middle infielders, as eight second basemen and five shortstops were taken compared to a total of eight middle infielders in 2011. The East Division was the one exception, where Ian Kinsler was the only middle infielder chosen.

Power will be key in the West Division, where four first basemen were kept, including both Prince Fielder and Paul Konerko by the Vicious Fishes. The East Division kept no power-hitting first basemen. A total of nine first basemen were protected by their teams this year, which is a drop from 12 last year.

The number of outfielders kept dropped significantly this year, down from 21 in 2011 to 15. The Bulls bucked this trend, keeping Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Hunter Pence to complete its outfield for 2012.

Owners are waiting to draft third basemen, as just five were kept, including just one in the North Division and none in the West. A lack of established stars kept owners from investing high draft choices at the position.

Six closers were kept, including both Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon by the Jersey Boys. that's two more than were kept last year which promises to make the annual run on closers during the March draft a free-for-all.

While this gives you a bird's-eye view of how the keeper draft unfolded, over the next few days I'll look at the players each team protected division by division. This will help you develop a strategy for the March draft. Despite having just five players on each roster, trends are beginning to emerge by division.

NEWS & NOTES FROM AROUND THE LEAGUE: Three new owners participated in their first keeper draft on Thursday. Nikhil Dinesh, owner of the Vicious Fishes; David Kahn, co-owner of HUMA; and Elizabeth Gravely, owner of the Marin Menehunes.

Gravely petitioned the league for a name and venue change for the Sasquatch Sluggers franchise. The Sluggers had been based in the Dogpatch in 2010 before the team became essentially ownerless in 2011. Gravely will move the franchise to a new stadium in Marin. "There's no question they have a sound marketing plan and expansion into the North Bay is a positive development," said a source in the league office. The team has unveiled a new logo and is seeking corporate sponsors to partner with the team. The Menehunes have never made the playoffs but Gravely vows that will change in 2012. "We are committed to building a winning team," she said. "We like our young hitters, Billy Butler and Asdrubal Cabrera, and Tim Lincecum is one of the top starting pitchers in the league. We're focused on a solid March draft and turning this team's fortunes around in 2012."

Kahn works the draft room

After a heart-breaking championship series loss to the Lower Haighters in 2011, HUMA has added a new face in the front office. Successful attorney David Kahn will work with owner and international wine mogul, Michelle Perry, to help the team take the final step and win a title. Kahn will be responsible for player development and has been asked to raise money to make improvements on the team's Hyde Street stadium. Kahn's first decision was to protect outfielder Josh Hamilton, who is battling substance abuse problems and is currently undergoing counseling. "Josh was instrumental in this team winning the South Division pennant last year and we're going to stand by him as he sorts through his issues. We feel like Josh, Adrian Beltre, Joey Votto, and young Peter Bourjos form the nucleus of a dynamic offense, which has been our hallmark the last two years. We'll add some pitching in the March draft and get ready to compete in what is undoubtedly the toughest division in the league."

Last Minute Thoughts to Reinforce Your Insecurities

"It's easy to get the players; it's getting them to play together that's the tough part." - Casey Stangel

If you have dreams about who to draft in tomorrow night's fantasy baseball keeper draft you've officially crossed a line that I can't help you with. If you are one of our female owners and you are having dreams about certain players and it doesn't involve baseball, good for you. I can, however, offer some last-minute insights to reinforce your insecurities heading into our second biggest night of the season.

Do You Have a Plan? Don't freak out if you don't or if you aren't sure what I'm talking about. You are only keeping the five best players on your team. The foundation for 2012. Honestly, the players you keep on Thursday will dictate how you draft in March. Which leads to my second point...

Marvin Gardens or Pennsylvania Avenue? You've heard me compare fantasy baseball to Monopoly. Strategically, they share similarities. In Monopoly, the goal is simple - try to buy all the properties of the same color and begin developing them. The idea is the same in fantasy baseball. Instead of properties, you are developing statistical categories. If you have three starting pitchers that will strikeout 200 batters each you are halfway to the 1,200 strikeouts needed to "own the property". Those pitchers will also help you win your fair share of Quality Starts, ERA, and WHIP. Does it make sense to keep three pitchers and then spend your first pick in March on a hitter? If you answered 'yes' you are the Monopoly player who buys every property you land on only to find you don't own three properties of the same color. And with your next roll you land on Atlantic Avenue which has been developed with two hotels by your opponent. Now that he owns all your money he can develop a baseball stadium on his property.

Hitting or Pitching? This is the real question. I've told you it's not possible to win every statistical category. It's true. In two seasons, no team has defeated an opponent in all 12 statistical categories. Teams have won 11 categories during a week a couple of times over two years. Most weekly match-ups end in a 7-5 or 8-4 score. Last year's division winners had the following winning percentages - .554, .522, .507, and .638. In three of the four divisions, if you could win 7 of the 12 statistical categories you would dominate your division. You could win five of the six pitching categories and need just one offensive category to break even. That doesn't mean you should keep three good hitters and two average ones but if you have three home run hitters, a base stealer, and a top closer, well, you get my drift...

It's Easier to Build a Monopoly in Some Categories. This is absolutely true. Stolen bases, Holds and Saves are the three easiest. They are also the most volatile week-to-week so player slumps and nagging injuries can really impact these categories. If you are all in on cornering the market in one of these categories - and it's not a bad strategy - you'll have to live the roller coaster ride for 23 weeks.

Enjoy! Fantasy baseball is fun. It also requires as much luck as it does strategy. Jenni Kirk is a Miguel Cabrera pulled groin from fantasy league depression. You can have the best plan in the world but if Adam Wainwright blows out an elbow during spring training, you're screwed. Tomorrow night is about drafting your players, having a beer with friends, and toasting the fact that our favorite sport, baseball, is officially back.

Keeping Players - Do You Have a Plan?

Several of you have contacted me agaonizing over which players to keep on Thursday. There is no right or wrong answer but there is one approach that will benefit you during the 2012 season - plan ahead to stay ahead.

You don't need to beat 15 other teams to win this game. You need to beat the three teams in your division to make the championship playoffs. Focus on your division rivals. You face each of them three times during the season but the majority of your non-division foes you face just once. Develop a strategy based on the roster strengths and weaknesses within your division.

Let's use the East Division as an example. The Machine had the highest finish of any team in the division in 2011 so Donna will be naming her keeper first in each round. Based on last year's records, Leigh-Ann will go second, Sunni third and Leslie last. Because of her poor record in 2011, Leslie receives the advantage of watching her division rivals build their team before she has to make her decision.

In the first three rounds Donna keeps Jose Bautista, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Cain. Sunni keeps Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and Evan Longoria. Leigh-Ann chooses Michael Pineda, Justin Verlander and Curtis Granderson. Leslie takes Yovani Gallardo, James Shields and Zach Grienke.

Donna has home run power with Bautista, stolen bases with Ellsbury and a strong starting pitcher. Sunni also has home run power with Longoria, a strong starter with Bumgarner and a catcher in Posey, who could give her a big advantage not in a category, but in productivity from a position. Leigh-Ann has decided to keep two very good starting pitchers and an all-around outfielder. Leslie, picking last, keeps three starters, which should make her strong in quality starts and strikeouts.

The four owners, eyeing each other, begin to make their strategic moves in the fourth round. Donna protects starting pitcher Dan Haren because Leigh-Ann and Leslie are building strong starting pitching staffs. Sunni decides she can't match the starting pitching staffs of her opponents so she keeps Michael Morse, a home run hitter. Leigh-Ann goes in a different direction - protecting Mariano Rivera, getting a jump on the saves category.

Leslie now has a decision to make. Does she match Leigh-Ann by keeping closer Heath Bell? Does she keep Matt Holliday to begin building her offense? Or, does she go against the grain and keep Jonny Venters, a premier set-up man who will provide holds and help her lower her already strong WHIP and ERA?

While other owners in other divisions are making their picks during the draft, our four East Division owners are really only concerned with how their division opponents are constructing their rosters.

You can't win every statistical category. Choosing your team is about making choices. In our hypothetical keeper draft, Sunni has just one starting pitcher through four rounds but is putting together a strong offense. If she decides to keep Lance Berkman with her fifth and final choice, she sends a message to her division opponents - "I'm building a team to bludgeon you to death." Leigh-Ann could keep Jonathan Papelbon and corner the saves category.

The point is, keep an eye on your opponents. Zig when they zag. Don't be afraid to "punt" a category. If Leigh-Ann has two closers leaving the draft Donna may want to add a third starter and "punt" saves. She can draft set-up men in March and beat her opponents in holds. If you decide to build a strong pitching staff, focus on just one or two offensive categories in March.

Your strategy doesn't have to completely take shape on Thursday. Owners will leave with just five of the 26 players they need so you can continue scheming until March 19. But when you leave Thursday, you should have a plan in mind based on the players you keep and the players your division rivals keep.

THURSDAY'S KEEPER DRAFT ORDER BY DIVISION

* Where each team picks overall in the draft is listed in parentheses.

NORTH DIVISION

The Bulls (3)

Bacon at Mile 11 (10)

Give it a Yankee (12)

Home Run 101 (14)

SOUTH DIVISION

HUMA (2)

Los Coche Bomba (5)

High Cheese (7)

The Cys (9)

EAST DIVISION

The Machine (4)

Jersey Boys (6)

Twinkle Toes (11)

Scully's Slammers (15)

WEST DIVISION

Lower Haighters (1)

A-Rod's Mirrors (8)

Sasquatch Sluggers (13)

Vicious Fishes (16)

Let's Play Russian Roulette - Keeping Closers

So, you think you have a good closer. He's nails. A shut-down ninth inning pitcher for the past two years. Your plan is to keep him, because, let's face it, the run on closers early in the March draft can cause even the most experienced owner to panic and reach for Brian Fuentes or George Sherrill.

Great plan - with it comes a gun and one bullet in the chamber. Point it to your fantasy temple and squeeze the trigger. If it goes off, that's the sound of your fantasy baseball season splattering against the wall. If it doesn't, congratulations, your closer will probably keep you in the pennant race until September.

That's how important great closers are to the success of your team and how unpredictable the position is. Investing in the position is like putting your life savings into a tech stock that comes highly recommended by your cousin Vinny.

I didn't break this list down into keepers and non-keepers. Instead, I have included in this tier closers who should have the role of closer on their team when they leave spring training. Emphasize, should.

The only players I truly trust are Drew Storen, Heath Bell, Craig Kimbrel, John Axford and, to a certain extent, Brian Wilson. If pressed I would advise keeping them, but I would caution - there's always a 1-in-6 chance the gun could go off.

If you keep anybody else from this list, you are truly a risk-taking fantasy league owner. Roll the dice and hope like hell it comes up sevens. If you pick right, you'll have one of the most difficult positions in fantasy baseball covered.

What's it like watching your closer enter a game? Stand in front of your stove, light one burner, put on a blindfold, spin around five times, and touch your hand to the stove. There's only a 25 percent chance you're going to get burned (unless you have one of those middle burners. That's like owning a closer from the next tier). The problem is, you need good closers to compete in fantasy baseball. When they are good, they are like home run hitters, they benefit you in three categories - saves, WHIP and ERA. On most weeks, you need at least two closers to win the saves category. Do the math. There are 16 teams in our league and 30 teams in baseball. Somebody's getting screwed here. And at least two owners will try to corner the market in saves and draft three closers early. That strategy virtually guarantees a category win 75 percent of the time.

Yeah, I saved the best for last. But wait, there's more.

Closers not only cause anxiety on a nightly basis when they take the mound, but they cause major heartburn during the draft. It's called the "Run of the Closers." It usually happens late in the first round or early in the second round of the March draft. Somebody picks a closer. Then a second owner picks a closer, fearing getting shutout of the market. Then a third owner picks a closer - and you are still 12 picks away! You, my friend, are looking at the distinct possibility of Kevin Gregg being your closer. I'm guessing you'll turn away from Baseball Tonight before the Orioles highlights.

So maybe investing a keeper pick in a closer isn't such a bad idea after all. Ask Joe Nathan's owner how that worked out last year. Or Carlos Marmol's. Or Joakim Soria's. Hey, I owned both Soria and Marmol last year - they were sure things - and by July I had a garden hose running from the tailpipe of my car into my driver's side window in a closed garage. It was that bad.

Of course, the other option is choosing someone from this list...

I'll admit, I love Kenley Jansen. I think he can be a great closer. All of his important numbers - K/9, WHIP, ERA - point to 30+ saves. The problem is, Javy Guerrera could be the closer for the Dodgers. Screwed by the Dodgers once again.

I'm not going to say anything bad about Fernando Salas because I used him as my closer when Marmol and Soria imploded last year. I paired him with Jose Valverde and crossed my fingers. It was like finding $10 in the couch cushions. The rest of this list? I would just as soon play Jack Cust at utility. See, this is what happens when you don't take chances at the closer position. You are left with Chad Qualls and George Sherrill. You could punt the category, but that's a topic for a different post.

Keeping a Set-Up Man Can be a Sound Investment

"Now you've got the long reliever, the middle man, the set-up man, the short man, the stopper, whatever you want to call it, guys who just pitch one inning at a time. I came in with Gaylord Perry winning by a run and saved 14 of his 15 games. I was pitching four or five innings sometimes. There was no such thing as a set-up man. I was my own set-up man." - Rollie Fingers, San Diego Padres Relief Pitcher.

Baseball has changed since Rollie Fingers was relieving games for the Padres. It's a specialists game today. You have the LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY), the long men/spot starters, middle relievers, set-up men and closers or stoppers. They each have a defined role and executing that role is essential to their team's success.

In the SFRRC Fantasy Baseball League we measure the success of the late-inning relievers. In today's game, that's the LOOGY, the set-up men, and the closers. Of all the bullpen pitchers, they must perform flawlessly because they pitch with the game on the line.

Today's post looks at set-up men, which includes the LOOGY. Set-up men are brought in by the manager, usually in the seventh or eighth inning and often with men on base, to protect a team's lead. Only the best can survive these high-leverage situations. Statistically, they are rewarded with holds (holding the lead for their team) but they mean much more than that for our fantasy teams. They add strikeouts to our totals and successfully lower our team WHIP and ERA.

If you have a premier set-up man, he's as important as an ace pitcher, base stealer, or home run hitter. Entering the 2012 season, here is a list of set-up men that you should consider keeping.

Notice we've substituted K/9 for Innings Pitched when assessing set-up men compared to starting pitchers. K/9 measures the average number of batters the set-up man would strikeout over nine innings. Projecting holds is tricky, but a high K/9 rate and a low WHIP can be excellent predictors for late-inning success.

Tyler Clippard, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson and Rafael Soriano have been the league's premier set-up men for the past three years. The ancient Arthur Rhodes is the league's best LOOGY, shutting down opposing left-handed hitters with the game on the line. Sergio Romo, Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty and David Robertson have emerged over the last three years as the next generation of great set-up men.

Bullpen roles change often so drafting set-up men can be a tricky proposition. The above players are established and should be solid contributors in 2012.

One number stands out when reviewing this second tier of set-up men - it's the strikeout rate of young Rex Brothers, who is expected to be a key piece of the bullpen for the Colorado Rockies. Brothers is worth watching in spring training but, like others on this list, he holds just enough risk to not earn a keeper slot.  
Francisco Rodriguez will earn you holds and a few vulture saves but he could hurt your ERA. The remainder of the names on this list are solid, if unspectacular set-up men. They'll earn you holds while lowering your staff ERA and WHIP. That's exactly what you want when you draft these players. If you are building a power-hitting team with a strong bullpen (one strategy to win a pennant) you'll want a minimum of two players from these two lists. Sticking to that strategy means foregoing starting pitching early in the draft knowing that your bullpen will lower your ERA and WHIP.

When you review this tier of set-up men, don't worry about the projections for holds. As I said earlier, it's difficult to forecast bullpen roles prior to spring training. That said, these players have the "stuff" you're looking for.

Vinnie Pestano's 12.43 strikeout rate is eye-popping and his projected WHIP of 1.08 would look great on any staff. Hong-Chih Kuo was expected to be one of the league's premier set-up men last year before he suffered anxiety attacks in Dodger Stadium. Now he moves to Seattle where, if his anxiety problems are cured, he could be a sleeper in this draft.

Notice the save projections for Addison Reed. The White Sox are a team that will hold auditions for closer with Reed and Matt Thornton vying for the role. If Thornton becomes closer, Reed will be a set-up man and will likely earn double-digit holds. A similar situation exists in Oakland, where Fautino De Los Santos will audition for closer this spring. His strikeout rate is sensational so he's worth keeping an eye on heading into the March draft.

If you are forced to draft set-up men from this list, beware - they could damage your WHIP and ERA. They should not be used if you are building a team around your bullpen. If, on the other hand, you've decided to build a team around your starting pitching and hitters, you might find a diamond in the rough amongst this group.

Tom Wilhelmsen is projected to have a decent WHIP and ERA and will likely be a steal in the draft. He's penciled in as a set-up man for the Seattle Mariners. If he can keep that role, he'll easily surpass his projected hold total.

Mike Stutes has earned greater responsibility in the Philadelphia bullpen and is projected to have 13 holds with a decent WHIP and ERA. He's also worth a late pick.

Going into the draft, be sure to have a plan for how you are going to use your set-up men. If you are willing to invest in premium set-up men, you can set yourself up to win the hold, ERA and WHIP categories on a regular basis. That will require additional work to locate sleeper picks on offense and starting pitching. If you invest earlier in hitters and starting pitching, you'll need to identify sleeper bullpen arms. Either way, devise a plan and stick with it.

Pitching Wins Titles - It Holds True in Fantasy Baseball

"Nobody likes to hear it, because it's dull, but the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching."  - Earl Weaver.

 Earl Weaver, the Hall of Fame manager, was right. Good pitching beats good hitting. The same holds true in head-to-head fantasy baseball. Your starting rotation needs to be anchored by two horses - pitchers that will throw 200 innings and strikeout 200 batters during the season. The problem? There aren't enough to go around.

When I'm assessing starting pitchers, I look for those magic 200/200 guys, but I use WHIP (walks + hits / innings pitched) to separate the best. If a pitcher limits the walks and hits he gives up, it follows that his ERA is going to be low. You can't predict how many quality starts a pitcher will earn during the season, but pitchers that throw 200 innings, strikeout 200 batters, and have a low WHIP will usually have 20+ quality starts.

The list to the left is a Who's-Who among major league starting pitchers. There are only two names that scare me - Yu Darvish and Brandon Morrow. Darvish, the Japanese star who will make his major league debut this season, is an unknown. Morrow has control problems. Every other pitcher on this list is a front line starter. If you own them, keep them.

Here's the kicker. Not all of these pitchers will be kept. Some owners will decide to keep premium position players or relief pitchers rather than two or three starting pitchers. There's nothing wrong with that strategy, though several owners are probably tossing and turning at night as they contemplate exposing one of their ace starters to the March Draft. They understand that, once dropped, there is little chance those players will be available when they draft.

I can hear Jenni Kirk now, "Brandon Beachy!?! That's another player I have to consider keeping!" Well, yes, Beachy has developed into an ace.

Carolyn Greene was probably not considering Bud Norris as a keeper, but he meets the ace criteria. He can strikeout 200 batters in a season and with that comes 20 quality starts. I have the same issue with Matt Garza. It's doubtful Sunni York will keep Morrow, but he could blossom into an ace. Leslie King can keep Yovani Gallardo, James Shields and Zach Greinke and she still has the second pick in the March draft to use on a power hitter.

This second tier is full of players that could develop into aces in 2012. Stephen Strasburg, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner will likely be kept by their respective teams. Josh Johnson and Adam Wainwright suffered season-ending injuries in 2011, but both were aces entering the season and are free-agents entering the March draft.

The top two tiers have enough starting pitchers to nearly fill out the top three spots for each team but there are some risks involved. Francisco Liriano was a disaster for most of 2011 - then he tossed a no-hitter. Jonathan Sanchez was so bad he was traded from the Giants to the Royals. Edinson Volquez was also traded, from the Reds to the Padres. All three players have exemplary stuff, Liriano and Sanchez have both thrown no-hitters in their careers, but they lack consistency.

Chris Carpenter, Tommy Hanson and Wandy Rodriguez are consistent veterans who can be trusted to meet their projections. Owners love their predictability and they are extremely valuable on a weekly basis.

Some of the pitchers in this tier will emerge as solid fourth and fifth starters. Others will cause their owners to run for the Rolaids. These players should be watched carefully during spring training. They can't all be trusted.

Justin Masterson is a pitcher who emerged as a dependable starter in 2011. Cory Luebke, Vance Worley and Johnny Cueto did the same thing. All entered last season with question marks.

Jordan Zimmerman could be a pitcher to emerge from this list in 2012. Clay Buchholz is another player to keep an eye on. He was emerging as an ace for the Boston Red Sox before he was injured last year. Jhoulys Chacin is another player that can help a good pitching staff become a pennant-contending pitching staff by providing depth.

Ricky Nolasco, Max Scherzer, Edwin Jackson and A.J. Burnett are four pitchers on this list that have caused fantasy owners to drink too much the past few years. Matt Patchell dubbed Nolasco "Ricky Fiasco" for his frequent blowups on the mound. It's doubtful Jenni Kirk will go anywhere near Scherzer after he destroyed her team WHIP and ERA in 2011. And A.J. Burnett? I threw him and his silly looking hair off my team at the end of April after he began dragging my starting pitching staff into the bowels of Hell.

As you can see, this list is a mixed bag of pitchers. There are no guarantees. There's also no way to guarantee that the player you pick will perform. While they may start the season on your roster, if they don't perform, don't hesitate to drop them and look elsewhere for pitching help.

It may be surprising to see some of these names on this final list. Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Jeremy Hellickson and Trevor Cahill are often mentioned as top-tier pitchers. Their numbers suggest otherwise. In most fantasy league drafts, they'll be picked ahead of Brandon McCarthy, but, really, how much better are they? It's important to remember, names and reputations aren't counting stats in fantasy baseball.

I'll let you in on another secret, there are ways to measure pitchers outside of our counting stats. One of the best ways is to look at Fielding Independent Pitching - an advanced statistic that looks at the statistics a pitcher can control and divorces it from fielding. In 2011, McCarthy had a FIP of 2.86 and an ERA of 3.32. What does that mean? It means McCarthy was a better pitcher than his ERA showed. His FIP was better than Oswalt, Hudon, Hellickson and Cahill. Yes, FIP is geeky, but you are reading a blog about fantasy baseball so what does that say about you? At some point during the season, you'll need to replace a starting pitcher. When you do, FIP is a great way to determine which possible free-agent acquisitions are pitching well. You can find FIP at FanGraphs, possibly the best website in the world that doesn't involve porn. As you know, you can't rely on Yahoo's fantasy baseball site to give you good advice. And, now that you've passed the threshold of fantasy baseball geekdom, there's really no going back.

Designated Hitter Starts and Stops with David Ortiz

The Sasquatch Sluggers and new owner Elizabeth Gravely will have a difficult decision to make at Thursday's Keeper Draft when it comes to designated hitter David Ortiz.

Ortiz is the only designated hitter worthy of a keeper selection. Ortiz is capable of 30 home runs and 100 RBI, which is great production from any position, but he's confined to the utility position and he's 36-years-old. Both factors reduce his value. If Ortiz was eligible to play first base his value would rise. Unfortunately, Big Papi, is stuck in the utility role because he's a designated hitter which limits the strategic use of the utility position. There's no doubt Big Papi is going to end up on an SFRRC Fantasy League roster this spring. Teams need the power he can supply. The only question is whether he will remain with the Sasquatch Sluggers or move on.

Outfielders Can Win You a Pennant

No position in baseball has more well-rounded players than the outfield. First base has more power hitters, middle infield can match the speed but neither position has as many players that can run and hit for power like the outfield. If your team needs offense, draft outfielders. It's the quickest way to turn an also-ran franchise into a pennant contender.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista are two of the best players in baseball and they are on the same fantasy team, The Machine. Owner Donna Hood also has the flexibility of playing Bautista at third base, a position that is scarce on talent, and drafting another good outfielder. Carolyn Greene has an outfield that features Carlos Gonzalez and Matt Kemp, two players with that unique combination of power and speed. Ryan Braun makes this list despite having his at-bats reduced in anticipation of a possible 50-game suspension for steroid use. If Braun does not receive a suspension, you can add another 200 at-bats and you can double his stolen bases and add another 10 home runs, 30 RBI and 30 runs scored to his totals. Every player on this list has the ability to turn in an MVP season and should remain on the respective teams.

This tier features some specialists and some all-around players. You could make a case for keeping just about every player on this list. If they are available when you draft in March, they should be targeted. Mike Stanton, Jay Bruce and Nelson Cruz are capable of 30+ home runs. Brett Gardner could steal 45+ bases and Dexter Fowler will score 100+ runs. While all of these players are extremely strong in one category, they also have additional categories where they can help your team. Nick Markakis and Hunter Pence are valuable because of their consistency across statistical categories. They don't put up big numbers in any one category so they are often forgotten but in head-to-head fantasy leagues, this type of player is valuable because they rarely slump. Nearly every player on this list will hit 20+ home runs and those that don't will be among the league leaders in other statistical categories such as runs scored and stolen bases. When you are building your team this spring, players from this list will help you contend for the pennant.

Two names pop out at me as I review this third tier of outfielders - Ichiro Suzuki and Carl Crawford. Both have been All-Stars in the past. Crawford might miss some time at the beginning of the season recovering from wrist surgery but if he leads off for the Red Sox, he could score 100 runs. Suzuki could also score 100 runs if the Mariners can find some offense. Michael Bourn could lead the league in steals but his power numbers are so weak, he falls into this tier. B.J. Upton has the best power/speed combination in this tier but he strikes out too often and doesn't get on base. Young players Desmond Jennings, Jose Tabata, and Yonder Alonso offer upside and could be undervalued. Every player on this list will be on a fantasy league roster in 2012. If you need help in a statistical category, this is where you can find it. This illustrates why the outfield is the best position to build your offense. There are plenty of players that can help fill your needs.

Ideally, players in this tier will be used to fill the utility slots on your roster. As we discussed earlier, you don't want a middle infielder in a utility role. They don't offer enough value. Cameron Maybin, Peter Bourjos, Ben Revere, Austin Jackson, Drew Stubbs and Alejandro De Aza can slide into a utility position and help you win the stolen base category on any given week. Jason Kubel, Torii Hunter and Delmon Young shouldn't be starting in your outfield but they are valuable utility players and can supplement your home run and RBI categories. There's another reason you don't want these players to start in the outfield - many of them can't be trusted to meet their projections. Hunter, Vernon Wells, Bobby Abreau, Kubel, Nyjer Morgan, and Alex Rios are all veterans with a higher risk of injury. on the flip side, De Aza, Boesch, and Jackson are still young players and they may not be as talented as the experts predict. The players on this list pose some risk so you should wait to draft them until you begin filling out your bench.

These players are insurance policies. They provide single category statistical help and should be added to your team if you are replacing an injured or ineffective player. They shouldn't be drafted. This brings us to a very important point - do not use the Yahoo Player Ranker feature to determine which free-agents to add. It does not accurately reflect the statistical value of the players in our league. Yahoo uses a ranking system based on a traditional 5x5 rotisserie league scoring system. BaseballMonster.com does a much better job of rating players for our league. It usually opens in early March so you can review players before the March Draft.

Third Base Power Outage

The lack of talent at third base has hit an alarming level. Fewer than a half dozen players are forecast to knock in 100+ runs. Only three to five players can realistically expect to hit 30+ home runs. In the past, third base was a position fantasy league owners could count on for power production. Today, owners have to approach the draft differently.

Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre are the best third basemen in the league. Longoria has slightly better power numbers and a higher OBP but Beltre doesn't strike out as much. David Wright provides the power but he also has the potential to reach 20 stolen bases. His higher strikeout rate lowers his value slightly but Twinkle Toes and owner Sunni York have both Longoria and Wright on the roster. Either could command a 200+ strikeout pitcher on the trade market. I almost didn't include Alex Rodriguez on this list, and I'm sure owner Sean McKenna is surprised to see his name, but, if healthy, A-Rod has 25+ homer and 100+ RBI potential.

Given the lack of talent at third base, it wouldn't surprise me if several of these players were retained by their current teams at the Keeper Draft. Pablo Sandoval has additional value with his low strikeout rate and decent OBP. Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Zimmerman are both coming off injury plagued seasons, though, if healthy, Youkilis can be an on-base machine, with an OBP exceeding .400. What you see is what you get with Mark Reynolds. Whiff, whiff, whiff, homer. He can absolutely crush the ball and your strikeout rate at the same time.

 These players will land on nearly half the rosters in the SFRRC Fantasy League in 2012 and it won't be pretty. Do you take one last chance on Chipper Jones, who was born during the War of 1812? Or youngster Pedro Alvarez who has no plate discipline (check out the strikeout/OBP projections)? The best player on this list might be Placido Polanco because he scores some runs and he doesn't strike out much.
Chase Headley would have some value if he didn't swing and miss so often. Brent Morel and Jimmy Paredes are young, so you can gamble that they'll exceed their projections, which young players sometimes do. Even if they do, the best you can hope for is 70 RBI and 15 home runs from a traditional power position.

Drafting a third baseman is going to be a crapshoot in 2012. The position is shallow. I can't envision going through the season with Casey Blake manning my third base position. But somebody will have to suffer through that reality.

Drafting Shortstops - Look for Steals, Runs

There are probably three shortstops starting on major league clubs this year capable of hitting 20 or more home runs and driving in 80+ runs. You won't find power at this position but you will find speed. That translates into stolen bases and runs scored, two categories you need to focus on when drafting your shortstop.

Shortstop is essentially a defensive position. Because of that, most shortstops aren't offensive threats and have limited value in fantasy baseball. I believe there are three shortstops in the league worth keeping - Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. All three represent a risk because of their injury histories and, in Hanley's case, a bad attitude that impacts his on-field performance. Their ability to steal bases, score runs and even provide some power make them worth the investment of at least a fifth-round pick in our league. Tulowitzki is an unusual shortstop, a player capable of 30+ homers, 100+ runs, and 100+ RBI. His statistical profile resembles a first baseman but with a lower strikeout rate and more steals. Reyes is your classic shortstop, 35+ stolen bases, 100+ runs and enough pop in his bat to give you 10+ home runs. He rarely strikes out. Ramirez has the best combination of power and speed at the position but that attitude thing...

The second tier illustrates how quickly the power numbers decrease at this position. Asdrubal Cabrera is probably the best bet to hit 20+ homers and steal 20+ bases. Jimmy Rollins will steal more bases than Cabrera and could hit 20+ home runs with half the strikeout rate, but, Rollins is getting older and has had injury problems. Of the pure base stealers, Elvis Andrus provides the most value because he will drive in some runs. Dee Gordon and Emilio Bonifacio steal bases and score runs but do little else. Ideally, they would be used as utility or bench players for match-up purposes, but, with the lack of depth at shortstop, they will be in someone's starting lineup on opening day.

Eight of the 12 players on the final list will land on opening day rosters in the SFRRC Fantasy League. That should scare you. Of the players that can steal 20+ bases, Starlin Castro appears to have the most value in other statistical categories. Notice how his statistical profile is identical to that of Derek Jeter except Castro has more speed.

You can win with J.J. Hardy in your lineup. He was the starting shortstop for The Bulls in 2011 but Carolyn Greene surrounded him with talent. Notice how the home run numbers for the last shortstops listed appear larger than those listed earlier. Now, take a step back from the screen and compare them with first basemen, or outfielders, or even third basemen. Who would you rather have in your utility spot or on your bench? If you target runs and stolen bases at this position (yes, even Jeter has enough value in those areas to start for one of our teams this year) your team will be more competitive than if you end up with one of the average home run hitters at the bottom of this list.